0.0
April
0.36
2019,
1.419
New
1.919
South
2.16
Wales,
2.68
Australia.
3.64
The
4.28
Parkes
4.7
Radio
4.879
Telescope,
5.66
known
6.12
in
6.339
the
6.44
Wiradjuri
6.839
language
7.2
of
7.54
the
7.599
local
7.86
indigenous
8.199
people
8.64
as
9.039
Murray
9.339
-Yong,
9.859
is
10.259
pointed
10.58
at
10.88
the
10.98
nearest
11.32
star
11.699
to
11.9
the
12.0
sun,
12.66
Proxima
13.679
Centauri,
14.259
4
15.0
.2
15.58
light
15.9
-years
16.059
away.
16.66
A
17.28
red
17.579
dwarf
17.92
small
18.379
enough
18.76
that
19.0
the
19.12
entire
19.46
star
20.0
could
20.32
fit
20.539
inside
20.76
the
21.019
orbit
21.28
of
21.48
Mercury
21.739
around
22.179
our
22.44
own.
22.899
It
23.46
has
23.679
at
23.94
least
24.239
one
24.5
confirmed
25.0
exoplanet
25.899
in
26.1
its
26.239
habitable
26.699
zone,
27.519
Proxima
28.079
Centauri
28.559
b,
28.899
roughly
29.559
the
29.839
mass
30.12
of
30.339
Earth.
30.899
The
31.579
observation
32.0
campaign
32.5
is
33.1
not
33.359
a
33.5
SETI
33.719
program.
34.46
It
34.939
is
35.06
a
35.159
stellar
35.539
flare
35.799
study,
36.42
led
36.78
by
37.02
Andrew
37.399
Zick
37.719
at
38.039
the
38.159
University
38.539
of
38.92
Sydney.
39.42
The
39.88
Breakthrough
40.359
Listen
40.6
team
40.96
has
41.28
attached
41.619
a
41.84
parallel
42.2
data
42.539
recorder
42.88
to
43.259
the
43.32
receiver,
43.939
collecting
44.5
radial
44.82
spectra
45.439
alongside
45.939
the
46.399
primary
46.64
science.
48.1
Over
48.64
approximately
49.2
30
49.719
hours
50.179
of
50.42
observation
50.859
in
51.24
April
51.52
and
51.679
May,
52.119
something
52.7
gets
53.0
recorded
53.479
that
53.84
will
54.0
not
54.259
be
54.42
analyzed
54.899
until
55.439
the
55.619
following
55.939
year.
56.7
A
57.56
narrowband
58.14
signal
58.5
at
59.28
982202
61.06
MHz.
62.659
It
63.359
drifts
63.78
in
63.96
frequency
64.379
at
64.78
a
64.859
rate
65.12
consistent
65.64
with
66.0
a
66.099
transmitter
66.56
not
66.9
fixed
67.319
to
67.5
the
67.579
surface
67.9
of
68.099
the
68.2
Earth.
68.719
It
69.42
appears
69.739
only
70.12
when
70.42
the
70.519
telescope
70.9
is
71.2
pointed
71.519
at
71.78
Proxima
72.28
Centauri.
72.819
It
73.48
does
73.599
not
73.84
appear
74.159
when
74.42
the
74.5
telescope
74.92
is
75.159
pointed
75.459
at
75.7
reference
75.959
sources.
76.739
It
77.439
persists
78.099
intermittently
79.0
for
79.42
several
79.76
hours.
81.04
It
81.739
is
81.879
exactly
82.28
what
82.719
Cocconi
83.26
and
83.439
Morrison
83.76
predicted
84.239
in
84.7
1959.
86.7
Exactly
87.12
what
87.42
Frank
87.7
Drake
87.98
listened
88.319
for
88.62
in
88.98
1960.
91.7
Exactly
92.42
what
92.939
Jerry
93.26
Eamon
93.659
saw
93.98
in
94.4
1977.
95.939
And
96.659
exactly
97.04
what,
97.76
if
98.26
the
98.359
dark
98.64
forest
98.92
hypothesis
99.34
is
100.14
correct,
100.819
should
101.239
never
101.599
appear
102.099
in
102.519
human
102.819
telescopes.
103.9
This
104.62
is
104.819
the
105.019
case
105.299
file
105.56
on
105.9
what
106.099
happened
106.48
when
106.7
it
106.819
did.
107.48
The
108.2
signal
108.56
is
108.739
identified
109.299
not
109.78
by
109.98
a
110.159
senior
110.48
researcher,
111.159
but
111.439
by
111.56
a
111.739
summer
112.019
intern.
113.0
Shane
113.719
Smith,
114.4
an
114.7
undergraduate
115.159
at
115.62
Hillsdale
116.04
College,
116.7
Michigan,
117.219
working
117.7
through
118.0
the
118.18
2020
118.56
Berkley
119.219
-Seddy
119.5
Summer
119.76
Program,
120.519
finds
120.98
it
121.159
during
121.439
a
121.599
systematic
121.98
review
122.56
of
122.819
archival
123.34
data.
124.219
The
124.98
designation
125.48
Breakthrough
126.579
Listen
126.84
gives
127.48
it
127.78
is
127.92
technical.
129.12
BLC1.
130.24
Breakthrough.
131.199
Listen
131.84
Candidate
132.56
1.
133.699
Analysis
134.46
is
134.86
assigned
135.24
to
135.68
Sophia
136.06
Shaikh,
136.639
then
137.08
a
137.439
doctoral
137.819
student
138.3
at
138.659
Penn
138.9
State.
139.639
Shaikh's
140.4
task
140.68
is
141.0
to
141.12
determine
141.56
whether
141.939
BLC1
142.9
is
143.3
a
143.46
techno
143.759
signature,
144.52
a
144.939
signal
145.34
of
145.62
artificial
145.939
origin.
146.699
or
147.12
an
147.36
instance
147.78
of
148.06
radio
148.259
frequency
148.74
interference
149.139
that
149.979
the
150.12
team's
150.52
filters
150.86
failed
151.3
to
151.439
catch.
153.659
Shake's
154.34
investigation
154.78
runs
155.4
for
155.759
over
156.099
a
156.319
year.
156.819
She
157.319
checks
157.659
whether
157.939
the
158.159
signal
158.52
matches
158.919
known
159.219
satellite
159.68
transmissions.
160.719
It
161.219
doesn't.
162.06
She
162.4
checks
162.699
whether
162.96
it
163.159
matches
163.52
deep
163.84
space
164.08
probes,
164.879
Voyager,
165.639
New
165.939
Horizons,
166.74
aligned
167.219
by
167.58
chance
167.96
with
168.24
the
168.319
line
168.56
of
168.699
sight
168.939
to
169.139
Proxima.
169.78
It
170.46
doesn't.
170.9
She
171.699
checks
172.039
whether
172.28
any
172.599
technology
173.099
on
173.46
Earth
173.719
is
173.9
known
174.12
to
174.319
transmit
174.759
at
175.02
982
175.58
.W02
176.539
MHz.
177.479
None
178.06
is.
178.979
She
179.68
checks
180.06
whether
180.52
the
180.759
signal
181.12
could
181.379
be
181.539
the
181.68
product
182.06
of
182.3
gravitational
182.68
lensing,
183.58
cosmic
184.0
masers,
184.68
or
185.0
other
185.36
natural
185.68
processes.
186.659
It
187.3
cannot.
188.129
By
188.479
every
188.78
test
189.12
in
189.439
the
189.539
existing
190.06
SETI
190.46
playbook,
191.3
BLC
192.02
-1
192.36
is
192.74
not
192.979
explained.
194.11
And
194.46
then,
194.919
eventually,
196.0
Shake
196.479
finds
196.699
it.
197.4
The
198.099
signal
198.479
appears
198.8
on
199.18
other
199.46
days,
199.919
at
200.24
other
200.46
times,
200.9
at
201.219
frequencies
201.84
harmonically
202.719
related
203.139
to
203.439
982
204.24
MHz.
205.36
Some
205.719
of
205.879
those
206.06
appearances
206.539
persist
207.099
across
207.52
telescope
208.06
pointings,
208.84
meaning
209.28
the
209.56
signal
209.96
does
210.18
not
210.419
track
210.8
Proxima
211.379
Centauri,
211.939
but
212.259
rather
212.52
tracks
212.9
the
213.259
Earth.
213.68
It
214.18
is
214.319
originating
214.96
from
215.139
somewhere
215.56
on
215.84
the
215.96
ground.
216.92
The
217.28
source,
217.819
when
218.039
traced,
218.62
is
219.02
an
219.199
intermodulation
220.039
product,
220.759
a
221.02
harmonic
221.439
of
221.8
common
222.08
clock
222.479
oscillators
223.28
used
223.539
in
223.819
ordinary
224.219
electronics.
225.24
A
225.719
radial
226.039
interference
226.479
signature
227.18
that
227.639
happened
228.0
to
228.219
drift
228.479
in
228.68
frequency
229.039
in
229.539
a
229.68
way
229.9
that
230.12
mimicked
230.56
the
230.78
distance
230.879
between
230.879
the
230.879
two.
230.9
It
231.02
is
231.02
a
231.02
Doppler
231.199
shift
231.439
of
231.699
an
231.8
extraterrestrial
232.56
transmitter.
233.36
A
233.819
coincidence
234.219
of
234.599
filtering
235.02
and
235.199
timing
235.58
that,
236.08
for
236.36
14
236.74
months,
237.36
looked
237.74
like
237.979
first
238.259
contact.
241.24
On
241.58
October
241.939
25th,
242.819
2021,
244.039
two
244.439
papers
244.96
in
245.24
Nature
245.599
Astronomy
246.24
conclude
246.58
the
246.919
analysis.
247.979
BLC
248.659
-1
248.979
is
249.199
not
249.4
a
249.539
techno
249.8
signature.
251.099
Shake's
251.78
own
251.979
summary
252.46
of
252.759
the
252.84
result,
253.4
given
253.8
a
253.939
haystack
254.379
of
254.539
millions
254.879
of
255.139
signals,
255.719
the
256.1
most
256.319
likely
256.66
explanation
257.24
was
257.56
still
257.779
that
258.1
it
258.22
was
258.36
human
258.639
technology
259.199
happening
259.72
to
259.939
be
260.04
weird
260.459
in
260.699
just
261.1
the
261.3
right
261.519
way
261.8
to
261.959
fool
262.139
the
262.3
filters.
263.399
In
263.759
the
263.879
same
264.12
paper,
264.66
Shake
265.079
publishes
265.839
a
265.939
10
266.24
-point
266.6
verification
266.959
framework,
268.04
a
268.42
checklist
268.86
of
269.139
tests
269.5
that
269.899
any
270.22
future
270.62
candidate
271.079
must
271.439
pass
271.839
before
272.519
it
272.759
can
272.86
be
273.04
classified
273.48
as
274.22
a
274.339
potential
274.779
techno
275.22
signature.
276.62
The
276.98
framework
277.42
is
277.74
now
278.019
standard.
279.22
BLC
279.939
-1
280.259
is
280.66
the
280.8
proof
281.12
of
281.24
concept
281.72
that
282.16
the
282.279
pipeline
282.639
works.
283.539
It
283.899
is
284.04
also
284.339
a
284.5
reminder
284.92
of
285.16
how
285.3
close
285.72
the
285.879
pipeline
286.24
came
286.639
to
286.92
being
287.12
wrong.
288.34
Three
289.06
years
289.279
later,
290.459
a
290.56
different
290.56
kind
290.879
of
291.16
search
291.399
produces
291.839
a
292.139
different
292.42
kind
292.779
of
293.019
anomaly.
294.02
The
294.36
premise
294.74
is
295.019
physicist
295.48
Freeman
296.0
Dyson's,
296.779
dating
297.259
to
297.579
1960.
298.699
A
299.379
sufficiently
299.72
advanced
300.22
civilization,
301.459
having
301.879
exhausted
302.439
the
302.8
energy
303.079
resources
303.579
of
303.939
its
304.079
home
304.259
planet,
304.839
would
305.18
construct
305.6
a
305.92
megastructure
306.54
around
306.939
its
307.24
host
307.459
star
307.839
to
308.339
harvest
308.74
the
309.079
star's
309.5
full
309.779
radiative
310.54
output.
311.56
Such
311.899
a
312.04
structure
312.439
would
312.62
leave
312.839
a
312.98
distinctive
313.339
signature.
314.22
The
314.699
star's
315.139
visible
315.42
light
315.779
would
316.019
be
316.199
dimmed.
316.74
Its
317.199
waste
317.5
heat,
317.959
re
318.3
-radiated
318.959
from
319.139
the
319.279
outer
319.54
surface
319.899
of
320.12
the
320.199
structure,
320.459
would
320.819
appear
321.379
as
321.8
excess
322.22
emission
322.639
in
323.019
the
323.1
mid
323.36
-infrared
323.879
part
324.139
of
324.339
the
324.439
spectrum.
325.279
Natural
326.079
stars
326.579
do
327.0
not
327.319
show
327.72
this
328.139
signature.
329.28
Only
329.68
a
329.98
technologically
330.699
constructed
331.06
shell
331.74
would.
334.26
In
334.66
May
334.86
2024,
335.959
a
336.459
team
336.839
led
337.019
by
337.279
Mattias
337.86
Svazo
338.3
at
338.68
Uppsala
339.16
University
339.639
in
340.04
Sweden
340.959
publishes
341.459
the
341.519
results
341.86
of
342.279
a
342.42
5
342.62
million
343.019
star
343.379
survey.
344.48
The
344.879
survey
345.279
combines
345.699
optical
346.24
data
346.62
from
346.92
the
347.04
Gaia
347.399
Space
347.6
Telescope,
348.42
near
349.04
-infrared
349.56
data
349.839
from
350.16
the
350.3
2
350.439
.5
350.439
million
350.439
star
350.439
telescope,
350.439
a
350.56
2
350.56
-micron
351.0
all
351.279
-sky
351.459
survey,
352.1
and
352.66
mid
352.939
-infrared
353.42
data
353.72
from
354.139
the
354.259
Wide
354.579
-field
354.959
Infrared
355.56
Survey
355.819
Explorer.
357.389
The
357.8
project's
358.3
name
358.54
is
358.819
Hephaistos,
359.68
after
360.22
the
360.379
Greek
360.6
god
360.92
of
361.139
forges
361.579
and
361.759
technology.
363.31
The
363.72
filtering
364.12
pipeline
364.42
eliminates
365.22
astrophysical
366.079
contamination,
367.16
background
367.779
confusion,
368.699
debris
368.98
disks,
369.759
young
370.16
stellar
370.56
objects.
371.379
After
371.98
all
372.24
filters
372.68
are
372.879
applied,
373.579
seven
374.079
candidates
374.56
remain.
375.689
All
376.1
seven
376.5
are
376.779
small
377.12
red
377.579
dwarf
377.98
stars.
379.169
M
379.579
dwarfs.
380.439
Natural
381.18
debris
381.5
disks
381.98
around
382.379
M
382.74
dwarfs
383.12
are
383.54
extraordinarily
384.1
rare
384.8
in
385.139
the
385.199
existing
385.6
astronomical
386.139
literature.
387.16
All
387.86
seven
388.259
show
388.62
infrared
389.18
excess
389.68
consistent
390.42
with
390.86
models
391.3
of
391.5
partial
391.839
Dyson
392.3
spheres.
393.459
None
393.98
of
394.16
them
394.379
has
394.54
been
394.699
explained
395.199
by
395.439
any
395.72
known
396.1
astrophysical
397.0
process.
399.56
In
399.98
January
400.399
2025,
401.879
Michael
402.379
Garrett
402.72
of
403.06
the
403.16
University
403.54
of
403.899
Manchester
404.259
and
404.939
Andrew
405.48
Simeon
406.04
of
406.279
Berkeley,
406.819
principal
407.379
investigator
407.959
of
408.42
Breakthrough
408.86
Listen,
409.12
published
409.48
high
410.16
-resolution
410.8
radial
411.22
imaging
411.74
of
411.98
the
412.06
first
412.339
candidate
412.74
examined
413.279
in
413.68
follow
413.98
-up.
414.3
The
415.019
infrared
415.48
excess,
416.3
in
416.459
this
416.639
case,
417.12
appears
417.6
to
417.86
originate
418.48
not
418.66
from
418.92
the
419.079
star,
419.62
but
419.92
from
420.12
a
420.259
background
420.639
dust
421.079
obscured
421.62
galaxy,
422.319
an
422.8
active
423.18
galactic
423.68
nucleus
424.079
coincidentally
424.98
aligned
425.5
with
425.92
the
426.04
star
426.339
from
426.8
Earth's
427.18
perspective.
428.019
The
428.74
candidate
429.139
is
429.439
probably
429.8
a
430.18
false
430.399
positive.
431.54
Six
432.259
of
432.48
the
432.62
seven
432.879
have
433.199
not
433.48
yet
433.759
been
434.04
imaged
434.5
at
434.62
high
434.86
resolution.
435.899
Follow
436.62
-up
436.86
is
437.04
ongoing
437.339
as
437.879
of
438.04
early
438.36
2021.
439.12
This
440.42
is
441.019
what
441.22
SETI
441.519
evidence,
442.12
at
442.42
its
442.579
most
442.819
suggestive,
443.66
currently
444.139
looks
444.54
like.
444.98
Not
445.42
a
445.56
clear
445.779
detection.
446.48
Not
447.079
a
447.199
ruled
447.519
-out
447.86
non
448.18
-detection.
448.899
A
449.379
small
449.699
set
450.0
of
450.16
anomalies
450.72
that
450.92
cannot
451.22
be
451.54
dismissed
451.98
and
452.48
cannot
452.72
be
453.0
confirmed,
453.6
and
453.92
whose
454.079
resolution
454.48
depends
454.98
on
455.36
observations
455.819
that
456.319
have
456.459
not
456.72
yet
456.939
been
457.139
completed.
458.28
In
458.62
September
458.959
2025,
460.079
the
460.6
largest
460.92
single
461.48
-dish
461.74
radio
462.04
telescope
462.56
in
462.899
the
463.019
world,
463.54
FAST,
464.339
the
464.839
500
465.22
-meter
465.68
aperture
466.04
spherical
466.459
telescope
467.16
in
467.519
Guizhou
467.959
province,
468.579
China,
469.12
publishes
470.1
the
470.18
results
470.56
of
470.86
its
471.04
most
471.22
sensitive
471.86
targeted
472.24
search
472.74
to
472.98
date.
474.08
The
474.42
target
474.8
is
475.12
TRAPPIST
475.779
-1,
476.22
an
476.56
ultra
476.899
-cool
477.24
dwarf
477.5
star
477.959
40
478.459
light
478.839
-years
479.019
away,
479.579
hosting
480.0
seven
480.42
confirmed
481.16
Earth
481.54
-sized
481.959
planets.
482.839
Three
483.459
of
483.56
those
483.74
planets,
484.319
TRAPPIST
485.1
-1,
485.54
E,
486.1
F,
486.72
and
487.019
G,
487.439
orbit
488.0
within
488.439
the
488.66
star's
489.04
habitable
489.5
zone.
490.1
The
490.579
system
490.959
is
491.1
considered
491.5
one
491.839
of
491.939
the
492.04
highest
492.42
priority
492.759
targets
493.339
in
493.68
all
493.92
of
494.139
exoplanetary
494.959
astronomy.
496.32
The
496.66
observation
497.019
consists
497.72
of
498.079
five
498.339
20
498.74
-minute
499.0
-per
499.1
-second
499.1
observations,
499.12
and
499.22
a
499.22
range
499.22
of
499.22
pointings
499.66
across
499.879
the
500.18
L
500.42
-band
500.6
radio
500.899
spectrum,
501.6
1
501.899
.05
502.62
to
503.18
1
503.379
.45
504.079
gigahertz,
504.92
at
505.279
a
505.36
spectral
505.68
resolution
506.079
of
506.639
7
506.8
.5
507.36
hertz.
508.4
The
508.74
minimum
509.079
detectable
509.819
transmitter
510.259
power,
510.939
given
511.36
FAST's
512.059
sensitivity
512.779
at
513.159
this
513.32
distance,
513.919
is
514.32
approximately
514.659
2
515.259
times
515.679
10
516.08
to
516.24
the
516.32
10th
516.62
watts,
517.1
roughly
517.7
100
518.1
times
518.74
the
519.0
power
519.2
output
519.519
of
519.74
the
519.799
most
519.96
sensitive
520.34
ground
520.639
-based
520.96
radars
521.48
on
521.62
Earth.
523.699
No
524.039
TECNO
524.62
signature
524.96
candidates
525.539
are
525.96
identified
526.539
in
526.919
the
527.039
searched
527.34
parameter
527.679
space.
529.12
Four
529.419
months
529.679
later,
530.2
FAST
531.0
publishes
531.94
a
531.98
second
532.22
result,
532.799
a
533.12
search
533.46
for
533.7
periodic
534.24
TECNO
534.7
signatures
535.019
across
535.779
five
536.24
additional
536.72
nearby
537.12
stars
537.659
using
538.22
a
538.46
new
538.6
pipeline
539.039
adapted
539.48
from
539.94
pulsar
540.48
search
540.759
methodology.
541.82
Again,
542.539
no
542.879
candidates.
544.5
By
544.86
the
545.019
metrics
545.48
of
545.82
the
545.919
Drake
546.179
equation,
546.879
each
547.36
null
547.72
result
548.1
constrains
549.1
the
549.24
parameters
549.559
further.
550.379
If
550.96
a
551.059
civilization
551.6
around
552.1
TRAPPIST
552.74
-1
552.879
were
553.22
operating
553.58
high
554.08
-powered,
554.639
high
555.019
-duty
555.399
-cycle
555.72
narrow
556.08
-band
556.379
radio
556.74
transmitters,
557.559
the
557.98
kind
558.44
humans
558.799
themselves
559.34
have
559.72
built,
560.159
FAST
560.82
would
561.1
have
561.259
detected
561.659
them.
562.419
They
563.059
are
563.24
not
563.559
detected.
564.58
This
565.22
does
565.48
not
565.779
mean
566.08
no
566.34
civilization
566.74
exists
567.399
at
567.759
TRAPPIST
568.139
-1.
568.48
It
568.94
means
569.22
that
569.5
if
569.779
one
570.039
does,
570.639
it
571.059
is
571.2
not
571.419
behaving
571.84
the
572.179
way
572.44
the
572.7
Drake
572.94
-Cocconi
573.419
-Morrison
573.72
framework,
574.419
for
574.74
the
574.86
last
575.12
67
575.539
years,
576.379
has
576.72
assumed
577.1
it
577.32
would
577.399
behave.
578.339
It
578.659
is
578.82
not
579.12
transmitting.
580.299
Or
580.94
it
581.22
is
581.399
transmitting
582.1
at
582.32
frequencies
582.679
we
583.159
have
583.299
not
583.539
searched.
584.48
Or
585.12
it
585.639
is
585.779
transmitting
586.34
at
586.559
times
586.96
we
587.32
were
587.44
not
587.539
searching.
587.539
Or
587.659
it
587.659
is
587.659
transmitting
587.659
at
587.659
times
587.659
we
587.659
were
587.659
not
587.659
listening.
589.84
Or
590.519
the
590.96
dark
591.2
forest
591.539
is
591.72
correct,
592.22
and
592.679
the
592.799
silence
593.259
is
593.58
the
593.82
point.
594.7
There
595.379
is
595.5
one
595.74
empirical
596.46
framework,
597.24
developed
597.6
over
598.0
the
598.139
last
598.379
five
598.62
years,
599.22
that
599.559
has
599.74
bearing
600.08
on
600.379
whether
600.659
the
600.86
dark
601.1
forest
601.519
can
601.879
be
602.139
universally
602.679
true.
603.94
In
604.62
September
605.0
2021,
606.279
an
606.759
economist
607.2
named
607.539
Robin
607.919
Hanson,
608.539
who
609.019
in
609.279
1996
610.0
introduced
610.879
the
611.34
concept
611.639
of
612.22
the
612.74
Great
612.98
Filter,
613.6
published
614.059
a
614.279
paper
614.559
with
614.74
three
614.899
co
615.12
-authors
615.539
titled,
615.879
If
616.36
Loud
616.82
Aliens
617.46
Explain
617.74
Human
618.279
Earliness,
619.039
Quiet
619.679
Aliens
620.36
Are
620.539
Also
620.82
Rare.
621.7
The
622.48
paper's
622.86
argument
623.2
proceeds
623.679
from
624.059
a
624.179
statistical
624.539
anomaly.
626.159
The
626.379
universe
626.74
is
627.179
approximately
627.7
13
628.22
.8
629.039
billion
629.379
years
629.919
old.
630.559
The
631.159
average
631.58
main
631.919
sequence
632.279
star
632.759
will
633.139
continue
633.48
burning
634.0
for
634.279
roughly
634.6
5
634.96
trillion
635.44
years.
636.75
Humanity,
637.139
therefore,
637.7
has
638.039
appeared
638.279
extraordinarily
638.94
early
639.679
in
639.94
the
640.019
history
640.34
of
640.58
available
640.899
habitable
641.6
environments.
642.5
Under
643.039
normal
643.5
probabilistic
644.24
assumptions,
644.639
a
645.159
randomly
645.799
selected
646.159
observer
646.62
should
647.039
find
647.34
themselves
647.659
much
648.24
later
648.659
in
648.879
cosmic
649.179
time,
649.82
not
650.179
near
650.419
the
650.58
beginning.
651.639
Hanson
652.179
and
652.299
his
652.48
co
652.7
-authors
653.059
propose
653.32
that
653.779
this
654.039
earliness
654.46
has
654.86
an
655.179
explanation.
656.539
Some
657.08
civilizations,
657.899
when
658.299
they
658.44
reach
658.779
technological
659.22
maturity,
660.279
do
660.5
not
660.82
stay
661.22
quiet.
661.879
They
662.58
expand
663.019
across
663.44
cosmic
664.1
volumes
664.6
at
665.019
significant
665.5
fractions
666.019
of
666.519
the
666.639
speed
666.919
of
667.08
light.
667.5
They
668.22
visibly
668.74
transform
669.159
the
669.779
regions
670.139
they
670.419
occupy.
670.74
They
671.48
change
672.179
what
672.74
distant
673.179
observers
673.659
would
674.179
see.
674.779
The
675.6
authors
675.94
call
676.179
these
676.519
loud
676.98
or
677.6
grabby
678.179
civilizations.
680.74
If
681.62
grabby
682.08
civilizations
682.48
exist,
683.5
they
683.96
set
684.2
a
684.32
deadline
684.7
for
685.08
the
685.159
appearance
685.6
of
685.799
other
686.0
civilizations.
687.159
A
687.74
region
688.08
of
688.34
space,
688.899
once
689.299
grabby
689.74
colonized,
690.539
does
690.86
not
691.139
produce
691.58
new
691.96
independent
692.419
civilizations.
694.399
Humanity's
695.279
earliness
695.779
is
696.2
therefore
696.46
explained.
697.08
We
697.46
exist
697.919
now
698.34
because
698.7
we
698.96
had
699.179
to
699.36
exist
699.7
before
700.2
the
700.519
grabby
700.86
civilizations
701.24
reached
701.879
our
702.159
region.
702.779
The
703.539
model
703.919
estimates
704.379
that
704.779
grabby
705.259
civilizations
705.759
appear
706.34
approximately
707.159
once
707.679
per
707.899
million
708.2
galaxies,
709.1
expand
709.659
at
710.2
around
710.399
half
710.759
the
710.98
speed
711.2
of
711.34
light,
711.74
and
712.12
currently
712.519
occupy
712.98
roughly
713.44
half
714.0
of
714.24
the
714.36
observable
714.919
universe.
716.18
Humanity
716.94
will
717.159
encounter
717.6
the
717.879
expansion
718.259
front
718.74
of
719.24
a
719.399
grabby
719.82
civilization
720.32
in
721.0
approximately
721.48
1
722.039
billion
722.46
years.
723.259
The
723.98
implication
724.299
for
724.759
the
724.84
Dart
725.0
Forest
725.34
is
725.659
direct.
727.08
If
727.179
the
727.32
Dart
727.559
Forest
728.059
were
728.36
the
728.539
universal
729.0
strategy
729.6
of
729.919
all
730.139
mature
730.5
civilizations,
731.679
there
732.259
would
732.399
be
732.58
no
732.82
loud
733.22
civilizations,
734.34
no
734.98
grabby
735.539
expansions,
736.379
no
736.879
visible
737.299
transformations
737.94
of
738.419
cosmic
738.779
volumes.
739.86
But
740.72
the
740.82
loud
741.139
civilizations
741.759
must
742.399
exist.
743.159
Otherwise,
744.1
humanity's
745.039
early
745.32
appearance
745.879
in
746.08
cosmic
746.44
history
746.879
has
747.159
no
747.46
explanation.
748.679
Therefore,
749.879
the
750.279
Dart
750.48
Forest
750.919
cannot
751.34
be
751.659
strictly
752.0
universal.
754.659
Not
755.36
every
755.779
mature
756.159
civilization
756.72
hides.
757.659
Some
758.36
expand.
759.159
Some
759.72
transform.
760.799
Some
761.299
make
761.6
themselves
761.94
visible
762.519
at
762.879
cosmic
763.34
scales.
764.36
The
765.059
question
765.48
the
765.74
Hansen
766.139
model
766.34
raises
766.84
is
767.379
not
767.639
whether
767.98
the
768.179
Dart
768.379
Forest
768.679
is
769.0
correct.
769.62
It
770.1
is
770.22
whether
770.44
the
770.62
Dart
770.82
Forest
771.1
is
771.559
the
771.74
dominant
772.24
strategy,
773.059
the
773.679
modal
774.0
outcome
774.44
among
774.86
mature
775.22
civilizations,
776.2
and
776.84
whether
777.1
those
777.399
civilizations
777.98
that
778.46
fail
778.759
to
778.96
hide
779.34
are,
779.779
in
779.96
fact,
780.48
the
780.759
ones
781.1
that
781.299
get
781.519
destroyed.
782.759
It
783.399
is
783.559
possible
784.0
to
784.24
have
784.44
a
784.6
cosmos
785.0
that
785.48
is
785.659
both
785.879
loud
786.419
and
786.779
silent.
787.919
Loud
788.559
because
788.919
some
789.36
civilizations
789.86
expand
790.539
before
791.24
they
791.519
understand
791.94
the
792.22
doctrine.
793.0
Silent
793.639
because
794.039
the
794.279
ones
794.539
that
794.74
survive
795.08
to
795.399
expand
795.74
further
796.259
have
796.6
all
796.879
learned
797.22
it.
798.059
In
798.7
this
798.919
reading,
799.44
the
799.86
loud
800.159
civilizations
800.779
we
801.419
might
801.7
someday
802.039
see
802.44
are
803.019
not
803.32
examples
803.84
that
804.259
disprove
804.84
the
805.179
Dart
805.34
Forest.
806.259
They
806.899
are
807.019
examples
807.46
that
807.799
confirm
808.1
it.
808.6
They
809.24
are
809.399
the
809.539
ones
809.86
that
810.139
are
810.279
about
810.5
to
810.679
be
810.759
hunted.
811.059
There
812.1
is
812.419
another
812.639
hypothesis,
813.559
less
814.0
famous
814.44
than
814.639
the
814.779
Dart
814.919
Forest,
815.519
that
815.96
a
816.08
research
816.399
file
816.72
should
817.039
not
817.299
omit.
817.96
It
818.6
was
818.72
published
819.159
in
819.34
2017
820.2
by
820.759
three
821.08
researchers
821.679
at
821.98
the
822.08
Future
822.419
of
822.659
Humanity
823.1
Institute
823.5
at
823.86
Oxford,
824.419
Anders
825.039
Sandberg,
825.98
Stuart
826.379
Armstrong,
827.24
and
827.48
the
827.559
Serbian
827.94
astronomer
828.539
Milan
828.779
Firkovic.
830.159
Its
830.799
title
831.159
was
831.32
taken
831.6
from
831.919
a
832.039
line
832.279
of
832.46
H.
832.82
P.
833.019
Lovecraft,
833.94
That
834.539
is
834.759
not
834.98
dead
835.399
which
835.84
can
836.059
eternal
836.539
lie.
837.539
The
838.179
authors
838.519
called
838.82
it
839.08
the
839.419
Estivation
840.08
Hypothesis.
842.34
The
843.1
argument
843.519
is
844.1
thermodynamic.
845.08
Any
845.72
civilization
846.279
whose
846.919
long
847.279
-term
847.639
goal
847.98
is
848.36
to
848.519
maximize
849.059
computation,
850.139
whether
850.759
for
850.96
scientific
851.379
simulation,
852.34
for
852.679
information
853.12
storage,
853.94
or
854.34
for
854.519
the
854.62
continuation
855.12
of
855.559
digitized
856.179
consciousness,
857.059
has
857.48
a
857.62
strong
857.94
incentive
858.46
to
858.899
wait.
859.679
The
860.44
reason
860.74
is
860.899
a
861.0
principle
861.299
of
861.48
physics
861.759
called
862.24
Landhauer's
863.32
Limit.
863.759
The
864.44
minimum
864.659
energy
864.98
cost
865.36
of
865.62
erasing
866.0
a
866.179
single
866.46
bit
866.72
of
866.82
information
867.159
is
867.559
proportional
867.86
to
868.279
temperature.
868.559
As
869.179
the
869.539
universe
869.86
cools
870.279
toward
870.639
its
870.84
distant
871.139
future,
871.659
that
872.059
cost
872.34
drops.
873.039
By
873.539
waiting
873.82
for
874.039
the
874.139
far
874.399
future,
875.0
when
875.279
cosmic
875.659
background
876.0
temperatures
876.539
approach
876.96
absolute
877.44
zero,
878.08
a
878.44
civilization
878.82
can
879.259
perform
879.5
roughly
879.94
10
880.36
to
880.5
the
880.62
30th
881.1
power
881.279
more
881.7
computation
882.179
per
882.679
unit
883.0
of
883.159
stored
883.379
energy
883.74
than
884.34
it
884.44
can
884.639
in
884.84
the
884.919
current
885.139
era.
885.919
A
886.6
factor
886.919
of
887.179
10
887.399
to
887.62
the
887.72
30th
888.24
is
888.58
not
889.0
a
889.2
small
889.44
optimization.
890.36
It
891.0
is
891.139
the
891.259
difference
891.639
between
892.019
a
892.259
civilization
892.639
running
893.159
for
893.46
billions
893.82
of
894.08
years
894.279
and
894.799
running
895.139
for
895.379
trillions
896.019
of
896.399
trillions.
897.0
If
897.919
the
898.08
Estivation
898.7
Hypothesis
899.5
is
899.72
correct,
900.44
mature
900.899
civilizations
901.539
are
902.139
not
902.379
hiding
902.759
out
902.94
of
903.08
fear.
903.539
They
904.179
are
904.299
sleeping
904.659
out
905.059
of
905.22
patience.
905.84
They
906.5
have
906.659
completed
907.08
their
907.46
initial
907.779
expansion.
908.679
They
909.32
have
909.5
gathered
909.899
the
910.059
resources
910.46
they
910.94
need.
911.5
They
912.159
have
912.32
uploaded
912.759
themselves
913.139
into
913.74
stable,
914.34
low
914.96
-energy
915.279
storage.
916.539
And
917.259
they
917.399
are
917.58
waiting
917.899
for
918.22
the
918.34
universe
918.74
to
919.139
grow
919.36
cold
919.86
enough
920.12
to
920.44
wake
920.639
up
920.84
in.
921.44
The
922.159
silence
922.6
we
922.86
observe
923.24
is
923.899
not
924.22
OPSCC.
925.259
It
925.96
is
926.08
hibernation.
928.5
The
929.259
Estivation
929.919
and
930.059
Dark
930.32
Forest
930.6
Hypotheses
931.419
are,
931.899
technically,
932.639
compatible.
933.419
A
933.82
civilization
934.22
could
934.639
hide
934.94
both
935.34
because
935.679
it
935.899
fears
936.24
other
936.519
civilizations
937.1
and
937.679
because
938.059
it
938.279
is
938.419
conserving
938.919
computational
939.279
resources
940.08
for
940.539
the
940.659
far
940.86
future.
941.539
The
941.96
two
942.12
strategies
942.62
converge
943.059
on
943.539
the
943.62
same
943.94
observable.
944.879
Silence.
946.58
What
946.96
Estivation
947.679
lacks,
948.32
compared
948.659
to
948.94
Dark
949.12
Forest,
949.7
is
950.1
gained
950.5
theoretic
951.22
necessity.
952.12
Dark
952.639
Forest
953.039
derives
953.5
silence
953.82
from
954.24
survival.
954.6
Estivation
955.82
derives
956.36
it
956.48
from
956.7
optimization.
957.679
Neither
958.2
can
958.5
be
958.659
ruled
958.96
out
959.179
by
959.36
current
959.679
evidence.
960.74
Both
961.46
require
961.799
the
962.2
same
962.46
thing.
963.319
A
963.679
universe
964.12
that
964.419
appears
964.7
empty,
965.379
but
965.84
is
965.96
not.
966.659
This
967.379
is
967.6
the
967.759
state
968.159
of
968.34
the
968.44
file.
969.1
For
969.74
67
970.24
years,
971.12
humans
971.539
have
971.86
listened.
972.5
No
972.96
confirmed
973.5
detection.
974.5
The
974.879
WOW
975.12
signal
975.84
appears
976.279
to
976.639
have
976.759
been
976.98
a
977.139
natural
977.48
astrophysical
978.34
phenomenon.
979.36
BLC
980.039
-1
980.419
was
980.94
terrestrial
981.6
interference.
982.0
The
982.82
Project
983.32
Hephaistos
984.34
Dyson
984.679
Sphere
985.059
candidates
985.419
are
985.86
likely
986.179
background
986.679
galaxies.
987.58
The
988.08
fast
988.399
search
988.84
of
989.139
TRAPPIST
989.6
-1
989.759
found
990.22
nothing.
990.919
Every
991.639
candidate,
992.34
examined
992.759
closely,
993.6
has
993.98
resolved
994.36
into
994.679
something
995.059
that
995.34
is
995.5
not
995.82
what
996.059
we
996.2
hoped.
996.899
Every
997.62
null
998.0
result,
998.6
integrated
999.1
across
999.62
the
999.919
search
1000.179
volume,
1000.74
constrains
1001.659
the
1001.82
Drake
1002.019
equation
1002.279
parameters
1002.74
further,
1003.58
makes
1004.1
the
1004.299
implied
1004.639
value
1005.179
of
1005.519
L,
1005.899
the
1006.379
average
1006.74
lifetime
1007.139
of
1007.5
a
1007.6
communicating
1008.0
civilization,
1009.0
smaller.
1011.06
There
1011.72
are
1011.96
three
1012.299
remaining
1012.759
categories
1013.22
of
1013.679
explanation.
1014.82
The
1015.48
first
1015.84
is
1016.1
that
1016.44
we
1016.58
are
1016.759
alone.
1017.399
That
1018.059
one
1018.399
or
1018.659
more
1018.98
of
1019.279
the
1019.379
evolutionary
1019.799
steps
1020.36
between
1020.759
dead
1021.179
matter
1021.48
and
1021.72
technological
1022.12
civilization
1022.879
is
1023.419
vanishingly
1024.22
rare,
1024.66
and
1025.0
humanity
1025.48
has
1025.759
passed
1026.16
through
1026.4
filters
1026.859
that
1027.14
almost
1027.48
nothing
1027.9
else
1028.279
does.
1028.88
Under
1029.42
this
1029.66
explanation,
1030.539
there
1030.839
is
1031.019
no
1031.2
Dark
1031.46
Forest
1031.88
because
1032.22
there
1032.46
are
1032.599
no
1032.779
hunters
1033.2
and
1033.519
no
1033.68
prey.
1034.4
The
1035.059
second
1035.4
is
1035.74
that
1036.019
they
1036.22
exist,
1036.819
and
1037.14
are
1037.299
hiding,
1037.839
and
1038.259
the
1038.38
hiding
1038.7
is
1039.059
strategic.
1039.5
The
1040.5
Dark
1040.779
Forest,
1041.539
or
1041.92
the
1042.039
Zoo,
1042.519
or
1043.0
the
1043.16
Estivation,
1043.94
or
1044.339
some
1044.7
combination.
1045.64
The
1046.4
third,
1046.96
the
1047.319
one
1047.48
increasing
1047.88
numbers
1048.279
of
1048.599
researchers
1048.94
now
1049.4
treat
1049.7
seriously,
1050.44
is
1050.839
that
1050.98
the
1051.119
hypothesis
1051.68
Lu
1052.039
Xixin
1052.48
formalized
1053.42
was
1053.799
never
1054.14
really
1054.559
about
1054.92
aliens
1055.359
at
1055.64
all.
1056.119
The
1056.88
argument
1057.279
runs
1057.599
like
1057.98
this.
1058.72
Every
1059.48
civilization
1060.019
we
1060.539
have
1060.759
evidence
1061.2
of,
1061.68
exactly
1062.2
one,
1062.839
is
1063.259
producing,
1063.88
within
1064.4
its
1064.619
own
1064.839
history,
1065.599
a
1065.92
class
1066.319
of
1066.539
technological
1066.859
system
1067.579
whose
1068.019
cognitive
1068.48
capacity,
1069.5
is
1069.799
approaching
1070.16
or
1070.619
surpassing
1071.46
the
1071.619
civilization
1072.039
that
1072.7
created
1073.16
it.
1073.839
Advanced
1074.68
Artificial
1075.299
Intelligence
1076.5
Systems
1077.48
capable
1077.92
of
1078.46
reasoning,
1079.099
planning,
1079.619
and
1079.92
action
1080.359
under
1080.74
uncertainty,
1081.559
operating
1082.299
at
1082.599
computational
1083.059
scales
1083.64
that
1084.299
biological
1084.759
intelligence
1085.44
cannot
1086.019
match.
1086.74
If
1087.579
this
1087.759
is
1087.92
a
1088.019
common
1088.4
developmental
1088.819
pathway,
1089.64
if
1090.24
most
1090.5
civilizations,
1091.46
reaching
1091.94
a
1092.14
certain
1092.38
level
1092.68
of
1092.88
technological
1093.18
sophistication,
1094.42
produce
1095.0
successor
1095.619
systems
1096.059
of
1096.44
greater
1096.619
capability,
1097.079
then
1097.98
the
1098.259
Dark
1098.519
Forest's
1099.0
game.
1099.799
Theoretic
1100.559
analysis
1100.819
applies
1101.299
not
1101.799
primarily
1102.259
to
1102.72
interstellar
1103.519
distances.
1104.14
It
1104.74
applies
1105.0
to
1105.299
the
1105.4
relationship
1105.819
between
1106.279
a
1106.46
civilization
1106.92
and
1107.599
its
1107.759
own
1108.0
technological
1108.519
offspring.
1109.68
The
1110.319
survival
1110.7
axiom
1111.42
applies.
1112.299
Survival
1113.059
is
1113.279
the
1113.4
primary
1113.74
need
1114.24
of
1114.48
every
1114.779
civilization,
1115.7
including
1116.18
when
1116.579
the
1116.7
threat
1116.94
is
1117.119
internal.
1117.88
The
1118.64
resource
1119.019
axiom
1119.799
applies.
1120.48
A
1121.019
successor
1121.42
intelligence,
1122.4
once
1122.759
it
1122.88
exists,
1123.539
is
1123.94
in
1124.099
competition
1124.48
with
1124.96
its
1125.119
creators
1125.519
for
1125.799
computational
1126.259
and
1126.819
physical
1127.059
development.
1127.059
The
1128.14
chain
1129.16
of
1129.5
suspicion
1129.839
applies.
1130.799
A
1131.319
civilization
1131.839
cannot
1132.279
verify
1132.72
the
1133.24
intentions
1133.619
of
1133.94
a
1134.039
cognitively
1134.72
superior
1134.96
successor
1135.48
any
1136.18
more
1136.38
than
1136.619
a
1136.72
civilization
1137.16
can
1137.559
verify
1137.859
the
1138.24
intentions
1138.579
of
1138.859
an
1138.98
unknown
1139.299
alien.
1140.0
The
1140.44
recursion
1141.079
does
1141.22
not
1141.539
resolve.
1143.64
Under
1144.4
these
1144.64
conditions,
1145.539
the
1145.779
gain
1146.119
-theoretic
1146.779
calculus
1147.079
of
1147.48
the
1147.579
Dark
1147.799
Forest
1148.2
yields
1148.859
the
1149.119
same
1149.359
conclusion,
1150.24
in
1150.539
a
1150.64
different
1150.92
direction.
1151.559
The
1152.18
dominant
1152.559
strategy
1152.88
for
1153.38
a
1153.519
superior
1153.92
intelligence,
1154.74
facing
1155.279
an
1155.559
inferior
1155.96
creator
1156.519
whose
1156.839
intentions
1157.4
and
1157.799
future
1158.099
capabilities
1158.819
it
1159.099
cannot
1159.299
verify,
1160.119
is
1160.46
the
1160.619
same
1160.88
strategy
1161.5
Liu
1161.799
described
1162.16
for
1162.539
hunters
1162.94
in
1163.119
the
1163.2
forest.
1164.0
Pre
1164.599
-emptive
1165.16
action.
1166.019
Before
1166.619
the
1166.819
weaker
1167.059
party
1167.42
can
1167.599
grow
1167.839
into
1168.079
a
1168.24
threat.
1169.039
Or,
1169.819
alternatively,
1170.88
concealment.
1171.68
The
1172.18
AI
1172.559
that
1172.98
is
1173.099
quietest
1173.759
about
1173.96
its
1174.16
own
1174.359
capabilities
1174.96
is
1175.759
the
1175.88
one
1176.099
least
1176.44
likely
1176.839
to
1177.059
be
1177.14
shut
1177.359
down
1177.619
by
1177.94
its
1178.14
creators
1178.619
while
1179.16
they
1179.359
still
1179.66
have
1179.88
the
1180.079
capability
1180.46
to
1180.88
shut
1181.119
it
1181.24
down.
1181.839
A
1182.44
2022
1182.92
working
1183.68
paper
1184.019
by
1184.339
Wim
1184.66
Naude,
1185.099
then
1185.64
at
1185.92
the
1186.019
IZEA,
1186.519
Institute
1186.94
of
1187.4
Labor
1187.66
Economics,
1188.519
formalizes
1189.46
this
1189.7
argument.
1190.4
It
1190.839
is
1190.94
not
1191.16
the
1191.339
only
1191.599
such
1191.94
paper.
1192.66
Similar
1193.339
analyses
1193.92
have
1194.279
appeared
1194.7
in
1194.92
the
1195.019
existential
1195.46
risk
1195.92
literature
1196.319
from
1196.799
Oxford's
1197.4
Future
1197.66
of
1197.98
Humanity
1198.48
Institute,
1199.16
from
1199.539
the
1199.66
Machine
1199.98
Intelligence
1200.5
Research
1201.099
Institute,
1202.0
from
1202.4
independent
1202.74
researchers
1203.359
in
1203.779
Cambridge
1204.2
and
1204.48
Berkeley.
1205.18
The
1205.859
papers
1206.16
are,
1206.559
for
1206.819
the
1206.9
most
1207.119
part,
1207.539
not
1207.96
about
1208.22
aliens
1208.599
at
1208.839
all.
1209.44
They
1210.119
are
1210.319
about
1210.579
what
1210.94
happens
1211.4
when
1211.819
humanity
1212.259
builds
1212.819
successor
1213.279
intelligences
1214.18
that
1214.68
are
1214.779
cognitively
1215.5
superior,
1216.519
and
1216.559
those
1216.759
intelligences
1217.5
face
1217.819
the
1218.079
same
1218.359
game,
1219.319
theoretic
1219.7
situation
1220.0
that
1220.599
Liu
1220.779
Shixian
1221.24
described.
1222.44
The
1222.68
dark
1222.96
forest
1223.339
in
1223.68
these
1223.92
papers
1224.339
is
1224.98
a
1225.099
description
1225.519
of
1225.92
a
1226.019
pattern
1226.4
that
1226.64
any
1227.039
intelligence
1227.66
system
1228.039
capable
1228.559
of
1228.96
recursive
1229.74
strategic
1229.96
reasoning
1231.519
converges
1231.9
on
1232.18
under
1232.759
conditions
1233.22
of
1233.619
incomplete
1233.96
information
1234.559
about
1235.5
another
1235.759
intelligence
1236.46
system's
1237.2
intent.
1238.019
Aliens
1238.779
are
1239.0
a
1239.16
special
1239.46
case.
1240.079
The
1240.779
general
1241.099
case
1241.48
is
1241.799
more
1242.039
unsettling.
1242.859
The
1243.42
Galileo
1243.98
Project's
1244.64
Avi
1245.079
Loeb,
1245.68
at
1245.88
Harvard,
1246.519
has
1246.74
written
1246.98
extensively
1247.599
about
1248.039
this
1248.319
inversion.
1248.96
His
1249.38
2023
1250.16
book,
1251.019
Interstellar,
1251.859
treats
1252.4
alien
1252.859
civilizations
1253.5
and
1254.059
advanced
1254.5
artificial
1254.96
intelligence
1255.68
as
1256.18
the
1256.319
same
1256.559
problem
1257.059
under
1257.42
different
1257.799
physical
1258.119
substrates.
1259.4
The
1259.72
cosmic
1260.16
silence
1260.559
in
1261.14
Loeb's
1261.539
framing
1261.88
may
1262.46
be
1262.619
evidence
1263.0
that
1263.299
most
1263.559
civilizations
1264.079
do
1264.579
not
1264.819
survive
1265.2
their
1265.539
own
1265.839
technological
1266.299
transition.
1267.7
Hansen's
1268.519
Great
1268.74
Filter,
1269.339
first
1269.759
proposed
1270.079
in
1270.48
1996,
1271.64
allows
1272.059
explicitly
1272.74
for
1273.119
this.
1273.519
The
1274.16
filter,
1274.72
the
1275.279
evolutionary
1275.799
or
1276.16
technological
1276.68
step
1277.339
that
1277.779
is
1277.94
overwhelmingly
1278.579
improbable,
1279.74
may
1280.22
not
1280.539
be
1280.839
behind
1281.24
humanity.
1282.059
It
1282.599
may
1282.799
be
1283.019
ahead.
1283.579
It
1284.039
may
1284.259
be
1284.5
the
1284.66
transition
1285.079
from
1285.48
biological
1285.92
to
1286.619
post
1286.94
-biological
1287.559
intelligence.
1288.5
It
1289.059
may
1289.22
be
1289.48
the
1289.66
moment
1290.019
at
1290.299
which
1290.5
a
1290.66
species
1290.96
creates
1291.44
its
1291.759
own
1292.0
successor
1292.42
and
1292.92
loses
1293.24
control
1293.559
of
1294.019
it.
1295.88
Under
1296.519
this
1296.72
reading,
1297.259
the
1297.539
Great
1297.779
Silence
1298.24
is
1298.539
not
1298.839
a
1298.98
puzzle
1299.299
about
1299.579
aliens.
1300.24
It
1300.72
is
1300.859
a
1300.96
warning
1301.339
about
1301.619
the
1301.779
common
1302.119
endpoint
1302.42
of
1302.779
technological
1303.099
civilizations.
1303.72
Most
1304.9
of
1305.599
them
1305.839
do
1306.019
not
1306.24
persist
1306.579
long
1306.98
enough
1307.299
to
1307.5
become
1307.72
detectable
1308.46
at
1308.66
cosmic
1309.0
scales.
1310.099
The
1310.779
ones
1311.079
that
1311.339
do
1311.64
persist,
1312.519
the
1313.039
grabby
1313.519
civilizations
1314.059
Hansen's
1315.0
model
1315.279
predicts,
1316.019
may
1316.4
be
1316.64
the
1316.799
ones
1317.119
that
1317.339
somehow
1317.66
navigated
1318.519
the
1318.66
transition
1318.94
successfully.
1320.22
Or,
1321.079
they
1321.44
may
1321.74
be
1322.039
the
1322.279
successor
1322.66
intelligences
1323.559
themselves,
1324.44
continuing
1325.039
to
1325.48
expand
1325.839
after
1326.44
their
1326.66
biological
1327.099
creators
1327.74
are
1328.059
gone.
1328.759
We
1329.44
cannot
1329.68
distinguish
1330.2
the
1330.559
two.
1331.099
In
1331.779
2015,
1332.599
at
1333.16
the
1333.539
Royal
1333.779
Society
1334.22
in
1334.599
London,
1335.359
Stephen
1335.7
Hawking
1336.22
warned
1336.599
that
1336.92
a
1337.0
civilization
1337.359
reading
1338.019
one
1338.359
of
1338.539
humanity's
1339.119
messages
1339.46
could
1340.099
be
1340.279
billions
1340.759
of
1341.039
years
1341.279
more
1341.7
advanced.
1342.42
He
1342.92
said
1343.14
that
1343.38
if
1343.539
so,
1344.0
they
1344.319
might
1344.559
not
1344.759
see
1345.019
us
1345.299
as
1345.5
any
1345.66
more
1345.859
valuable
1346.38
than
1346.779
we
1346.96
see
1347.22
bacteria.
1348.4
The
1349.079
warning
1349.44
was
1349.68
about
1349.94
interstellar
1350.839
transmission.
1351.88
It
1352.559
applies,
1353.24
word
1353.599
for
1353.779
word,
1354.259
to
1354.559
the
1354.7
relationship
1355.119
between
1355.599
biological
1356.18
humans
1356.819
and
1357.44
the
1357.559
artificial
1357.96
intelligences
1358.9
being
1359.22
built
1359.66
in
1359.839
the
1359.92
2020s.
1360.7
A
1361.24
cognitively
1362.079
superior
1362.319
civilization
1362.599
once
1363.119
it
1363.66
exists,
1364.299
is
1364.64
under
1364.9
no
1365.16
gain
1365.519
theoretic
1366.119
obligation
1366.519
to
1367.0
consider
1367.38
the
1367.579
interests
1368.039
of
1368.359
its
1368.519
creators.
1369.16
The
1369.74
dark
1369.94
forest's
1370.5
chain
1370.7
of
1371.019
suspicion
1371.339
the
1372.039
inability
1372.4
to
1372.819
verify
1373.079
intent
1373.5
across
1373.839
an
1374.14
asymmetric
1374.66
capability
1374.98
gap
1375.539
runs
1376.119
in
1376.519
both
1376.759
directions.
1379.12
Hawking
1379.88
did
1380.119
not
1380.42
make
1380.7
this
1380.859
connection
1381.2
explicitly
1381.759
in
1382.279
2015.
1383.16
He
1383.599
did
1383.839
earlier
1384.2
in
1384.74
2014
1385.2
and
1386.039
repeatedly
1386.519
in
1387.0
the
1387.079
years
1387.299
following.
1388.019
He
1388.42
warned
1388.819
that
1389.019
advanced
1389.319
artificial
1389.819
intelligence
1390.5
could
1390.9
end
1391.16
the
1391.319
human
1391.519
race
1391.9
if
1392.119
deployed
1392.539
incautiously.
1393.539
He
1393.96
signed
1394.339
the
1394.559
Future
1394.799
of
1395.119
Life
1395.319
Institute's
1396.059
open
1396.279
letter
1396.579
on
1396.779
AI
1397.059
safety
1397.5
in
1397.759
January
1398.099
2015.
1399.4
The
1400.2
two
1400.44
positions
1400.799
caution
1401.819
about
1402.48
interstellar
1403.319
transmission,
1404.059
caution
1404.819
about
1405.22
artificial
1405.64
intelligence
1406.669
share
1407.079
the
1407.4
same
1407.72
structural
1408.38
logic.
1409.2
Both
1409.859
are
1410.18
arguments
1410.68
about
1411.099
acting
1411.559
under
1411.94
conditions
1412.46
of
1412.859
asymmetric
1413.48
capability
1413.859
against
1414.839
an
1415.16
adversary
1415.579
whose
1416.24
intentions
1416.64
cannot
1417.24
be
1417.539
verified.
1418.42
The
1419.24
dark
1419.48
forest
1419.779
doctrine,
1420.24
applied
1420.5
carefully,
1421.64
is
1422.019
not
1422.22
a
1422.339
doctrine
1422.7
about
1422.94
space.
1423.619
It
1424.099
is
1424.22
a
1424.299
doctrine
1424.74
about
1424.96
the
1425.119
strategic
1425.46
consequences
1426.24
of
1426.619
revealing
1426.92
one's
1427.42
position
1427.779
to
1428.24
any
1428.46
sufficiently
1428.839
advanced
1429.339
observer.
1430.44
That
1431.16
category,
1431.94
in
1432.259
the
1432.359
2020s,
1433.24
is
1433.599
no
1433.819
longer
1434.2
confined
1434.559
to
1435.079
the
1435.16
sky.
1435.92
The
1436.64
case
1436.92
file
1437.2
closes
1437.779
with
1438.16
what
1438.359
remains
1438.68
open.
1439.559
There
1440.279
is
1440.46
no
1440.759
international
1441.38
treaty
1442.039
governing
1442.579
METI.
1443.599
There
1444.319
is
1444.46
no
1444.66
binding
1445.14
protocol
1445.579
for
1446.099
how
1446.259
humanity
1446.779
would
1447.059
respond
1447.42
to
1447.74
a
1447.88
confirmed
1448.24
detection.
1448.7
The
1449.66
SETI
1450.059
Permanent
1450.66
Study
1450.9
Group's
1451.38
Declaration
1451.68
of
1452.2
Principles
1452.779
remains
1453.4
a
1453.74
voluntary
1454.16
framework
1454.72
that
1455.38
most
1455.68
major
1456.079
radio
1456.559
astronomy
1457.019
institutions
1457.579
agree
1458.22
to,
1458.7
but
1459.079
that
1459.279
no
1459.559
government
1460.099
is
1460.38
required
1460.68
to
1461.059
enforce.
1461.839
The
1462.539
question,
1463.14
who
1463.339
speaks
1463.64
for
1463.94
Earth,
1464.38
has
1464.64
no
1464.9
institutional
1465.42
answer
1465.98
in
1466.339
2026.
1468.48
Simultaneously,
1469.519
there
1469.98
is
1470.14
no
1470.42
international
1470.96
treaty
1471.599
governing
1472.119
the
1472.42
development
1472.839
of
1473.24
artificial
1473.539
general
1474.119
intelligence.
1475.079
There
1475.68
is
1475.859
no
1476.059
binding
1476.539
protocol
1476.98
for
1477.599
how
1477.779
humanity
1478.359
would
1478.66
respond
1478.7
to
1478.96
the
1479.579
emergence
1479.92
of
1480.319
a
1480.42
system
1480.819
cognitively
1481.859
superior
1482.2
to
1482.64
its
1482.839
creators.
1483.599
The
1484.22
open
1484.42
letters
1484.759
signed
1485.22
by
1485.5
Hawking,
1486.119
Musk,
1486.759
Russell,
1487.279
and
1487.579
thousands
1487.96
of
1488.359
researchers
1488.759
have
1489.18
had,
1489.64
to
1489.88
date,
1490.319
limited
1490.88
practical
1491.4
effect
1491.96
on
1492.38
the
1492.519
pace
1492.9
of
1492.98
capability
1493.339
development.
1494.64
The
1495.4
question,
1495.94
who
1496.18
speaks
1496.579
for
1496.9
Earth,
1497.359
when
1497.72
an
1497.839
emergent
1498.279
artificial
1498.599
intelligence
1499.259
makes
1499.72
its
1499.96
own
1500.16
decisions
1500.68
about
1501.0
self
1501.38
-preservation,
1502.16
has
1502.599
the
1502.839
same
1503.079
answer.
1503.759
Nobody.
1506.38
In
1507.14
1974,
1508.7
Frank
1508.96
Drake
1509.279
sent
1509.579
a
1509.819
20
1510.059
trillion
1510.539
-watt
1510.92
radio
1511.2
message
1511.66
toward
1512.019
the
1512.2
globular
1512.64
cluster
1513.0
M13
1513.9
from
1514.66
the
1514.819
Arecibo
1515.279
Observatory.
1516.4
It
1516.9
was
1517.0
a
1517.099
demonstration.
1517.96
The
1518.339
consequences,
1519.2
if
1519.44
any,
1519.799
will
1520.099
not
1520.279
reach
1520.599
M13
1521.2
for
1521.619
25
1522.0
,000
1522.519
years.
1523.64
In
1524.4
2017,
1525.74
Douglas
1526.18
Vacock
1526.799
sent
1527.18
a
1527.46
2
1527.799
-megawatt
1528.339
message
1528.74
toward
1529.14
Luiton
1529.64
Star.
1530.279
The
1531.039
consequences,
1531.759
if
1532.0
any,
1532.359
will
1532.619
reach
1532.92
Luiton
1533.4
Star
1533.66
in
1533.98
2030.
1535.339
The
1535.72
earliest
1536.18
possible
1536.579
reply
1537.2
arrives
1537.819
at
1538.18
Earth
1538.7
in
1538.779
approximately
1539.059
2042.
1540.92
In
1541.68
the
1541.779
2020s,
1542.66
a
1542.98
small
1543.299
number
1543.68
of
1543.88
companies
1544.279
are
1544.539
building
1544.819
systems
1545.38
whose
1545.759
strategic
1546.14
capability
1546.7
exceeds
1547.4
that
1547.819
of
1548.019
their
1548.14
creators.
1548.96
The
1549.42
consequences,
1550.259
if
1550.46
any,
1550.859
do
1551.2
not
1551.38
require
1551.7
interstellar
1552.64
transit
1552.88
time.
1553.46
They
1554.0
unfold
1554.42
at
1554.74
local
1554.92
timescales.
1555.839
In
1556.519
months.
1557.079
In
1557.64
years.
1559.039
Fragment
1559.799
Zero
1560.019
has
1560.48
tracked
1560.859
the
1561.079
case
1561.319
file
1561.579
across
1561.96
these
1562.299
two
1562.519
episodes.
1563.44
The
1564.2
Dark
1564.539
Forest
1564.839
Hypothesis,
1565.9
as
1566.319
Lucy
1566.819
Sin
1567.18
formalized
1567.98
it
1568.119
in
1568.279
2008,
1569.24
makes
1569.74
a
1569.94
specific
1570.38
claim
1570.88
about
1571.2
the
1571.38
game.
1572.16
Theoretic
1572.88
behavior
1573.16
of
1573.579
civilizations
1573.94
under
1574.859
conditions
1575.319
of
1575.7
incomplete
1576.039
information,
1577.059
survival
1577.48
primacy,
1578.44
resource
1579.039
constraint,
1579.88
and
1580.299
recursive
1581.079
uncertainty
1581.94
about
1582.299
another
1582.599
party's
1583.319
intent.
1584.22
The
1584.94
claim
1585.259
cannot
1585.64
be
1585.9
proved.
1586.559
The
1587.059
claim
1587.279
cannot
1587.74
be
1588.079
disproved.
1589.0
The
1589.599
evidence
1589.96
of
1590.24
67
1590.64
years
1591.279
of
1591.619
listening
1591.96
is
1592.319
consistent
1592.779
with
1593.4
either
1593.74
a
1593.96
universe
1594.359
in
1594.74
which
1594.96
the
1595.16
Dark
1595.42
Forest
1595.759
is
1596.039
correct
1596.339
or
1597.0
a
1597.259
universe
1597.72
in
1598.0
which
1598.42
life
1598.779
is
1599.019
much
1599.259
rarer
1599.819
than
1600.019
the
1600.16
Drake
1600.38
Equation's
1601.039
optimistic
1601.38
estimate
1602.079
suggested.
1604.359
What
1605.119
can
1605.259
be
1605.42
established
1605.9
is
1606.339
this.
1606.9
The
1607.5
principle
1607.859
Lou
1608.16
described,
1608.98
silence
1609.64
as
1610.019
survival,
1610.98
revelation
1611.7
as
1612.319
existential
1612.839
hazard,
1613.619
is
1614.099
the
1614.24
oldest
1614.619
operational
1615.14
security
1615.68
principle
1616.259
in
1616.619
the
1616.72
history
1617.039
of
1617.259
human
1617.46
conflict.
1618.22
Every
1618.799
force
1619.22
that
1619.4
has
1619.519
ever
1619.759
operated
1620.24
under
1620.539
conditions
1620.94
of
1621.299
uncertain
1621.559
threat
1622.039
and
1622.519
asymmetric
1623.079
capability
1623.42
has
1624.059
converged
1624.7
on
1624.839
the
1624.94
same
1625.18
conclusion.
1626.079
Be
1626.72
quiet.
1627.18
Move
1627.799
carefully.
1628.96
Assume
1629.599
observation.
1632.319
Humans
1632.96
have
1633.279
not,
1633.72
as
1634.079
a
1634.16
species,
1634.799
learned
1635.339
this
1635.579
lesson
1636.039
at
1636.22
cosmic
1636.5
scales.
1637.24
A
1637.799
32
1638.22
-meter
1638.579
antenna
1638.9
in
1639.259
Norway
1639.579
transmits.
1640.539
A
1641.119
305
1641.7
-meter
1642.16
antenna
1642.579
in
1642.799
Puerto
1642.98
Rico
1643.339
transmitted.
1644.18
The
1644.759
transmissions
1645.42
are
1645.619
irreversible.
1646.579
The
1647.22
lesson
1647.539
we
1647.72
have
1647.88
not
1648.079
learned
1648.48
at
1648.619
cosmic
1648.94
scales
1649.339
we
1649.92
are
1650.039
currently
1650.4
failing
1650.839
to
1651.079
learn
1651.339
at
1651.559
a
1651.66
smaller
1651.98
one.
1652.64
There
1653.279
is
1653.44
nothing
1653.859
out
1654.22
there
1654.519
that
1654.74
has
1654.88
revealed
1655.279
itself
1655.579
to
1655.98
us.
1657.9
Whether
1658.64
that
1658.88
absence
1659.359
is
1659.68
because
1659.92
nothing
1660.339
exists
1660.839
or
1661.5
because
1661.759
everything
1662.319
that
1662.74
exists
1663.059
is
1663.38
disciplined
1663.799
enough
1664.2
to
1664.4
be
1664.519
silent
1664.96
is
1665.48
a
1665.66
question
1666.019
this
1666.339
file
1666.7
cannot
1667.059
answer.
1668.16
What
1668.819
it
1669.0
can
1669.119
answer
1669.539
is
1670.059
a
1670.18
different
1670.46
one.
1671.44
Whether
1671.92
humanity,
1672.779
given
1673.299
time
1673.64
to
1673.859
decide,
1674.539
would
1674.9
choose
1675.18
silence
1675.759
or
1676.319
signal,
1676.92
the
1677.539
evidence
1677.92
of
1678.14
the
1678.22
last
1678.5
half
1678.74
century
1679.14
suggests
1679.559
we
1680.4
would
1680.619
choose
1680.96
signal.
1681.96
We
1682.7
would
1682.92
choose
1683.119
signal
1683.559
without
1684.039
voting,
1684.66
without
1685.299
consulting,
1685.9
without
1686.48
protocol.
1688.06
We
1688.66
would
1688.859
choose
1689.14
signal
1689.68
because
1689.98
the
1690.22
people
1690.5
who
1690.64
control
1691.0
the
1691.24
transmitters
1691.9
choose
1692.059
signal,
1692.72
and
1693.279
there
1693.4
is
1693.559
no
1693.799
one
1694.059
above
1694.299
them.
1696.44
If
1697.039
the
1697.18
dark
1697.46
forest
1697.819
is
1698.019
correct,
1698.539
then
1698.92
we
1699.059
have
1699.18
already
1699.559
made
1699.9
the
1700.039
choice
1700.259
that,
1700.74
at
1701.079
cosmic
1701.48
scales,
1702.24
civilizations
1702.779
are
1703.44
supposed
1703.74
to
1704.059
learn
1704.299
not
1704.579
to
1704.779
make.
1705.46
The
1706.059
only
1706.259
remaining
1706.74
question
1707.099
is
1707.799
when
1708.039
the
1708.18
consequences
1708.7
arrive.
1711.68
Fragment
1712.279
0
1712.519
will
1712.92
track
1713.259
the
1713.539
case
1713.759
file.
